Nearly all major colleges in the United States have announced their admission decisions for prospective students by March 31. This marks April as the end of a chaotic admissions cycle for thousands of students across the United States. Many swirling rumors allude to the 2007 birth rates spike as a reason for ground-breaking numbers of applications, and tightened rejection rates.
But is there any truth to this? How much does this apparent birth spike really influence college applications? In order to understand the vast impact of the 2007 birth spike on college applications, the noticeable changes in this year’s cycle must first be taken into consideration.
So, how was this year different?
One thing that many top schools have in common this year is their record-breaking number of admission applications. According to the most recent official report from Common App, a resource used by students to apply to over 1,000 U.S. universities, there was a 7% increase in overall student college applications for the class of 2029.
A Forbes article about recent college decisions noted that Rice University experienced a 13% increase in applicants, and NYU received an unparalleled 120,000 total applications. In central Texas, this trend is no different, as the University of Texas at Austin had a record-breaking 91,000 freshmen applicants.
Was there actually a spike?
According to an NYT article from 2009, there were roughly 4,317,000 babies born in 2007; more than in any other year in United States history, and that figure still holds up.
Since 2007, birth rates in the U.S. have been on a steady decline, with a U.S. News article concluding that there’s been a 17% decrease in birth rates from 2007 to 2024.
The birth rates in 2007 don’t appear to be as dramatic when compared to other years, though. According to the CDC, There were 4,265,555 births in the United States in 2006; making it only a 1.2% difference from 2007.
Despite this, the birth rate spike was not the only factor that may have contributed to this application cycle, as the racial demographics in student applications are also shifting.
The Common App noted that the largest spike in applications comes from “underrepresented minority race/ethnicity students (URM),” whose applications were up 13% compared to only 2% for non-URM students. The number of white applicants showed no significant change, but Latino applicants rose by 13%, Black applicants by 12%, and Asian applicants by 7%.
There is more than just one reason for this increase, and some of which include other trends in higher education unrelated to the 2007 birth spike. For instance, many colleges became test-optional or test-blind following the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, and though some reverted back to pre-COVID testing admissions criteria, a majority remained at least test-optional. According to Inside Higher Ed’s 2024 data, more than 80% of U.S. colleges and universities currently “do not require applicants to submit standardized test scores.”
According to a study released last November by NAFSA: Association of International Educators, international enrollment in American colleges and universities had been rising about 6.6% from the 2023-24 school year and about 11.5% from the year before. However, one educational program, Studyportals, reported that international interest in studying in the United States dropped by 42% in January 2025. This trend is thought to follow the shifting U.S. political landscape.
Conclusion
Though it may be true that the 2007 birth spike may have contributed to the record-breaking highs in applications and lows in acceptance rates this year, the world of college applications is constantly shifting, regardless of this year. Current estimates predict that as a whole, acceptance rates will continue to drop and total applications will continue to rise, meaning that future classes of high school students will continue to compete for top schools and opportunities well into the future.
*As seen in print